In the early hours of September 10, as swarms of Russian drones entered Belarusian airspace heading west toward the Polish border, a Belarusian military officer picked up a dedicated phone line and called his Polish counterpart to warn him.

It wasnt the first time.

And Poland wasnt the only neighbor who got a call from the Belarusians. In Lithuania, bordering Belarus to the northwest, military officials also received a heads-up.

Russia is stepping up its drone warfare against Ukraine, increasingly filling Belaruss skies with the devices -- vexing Minsk, which has to decide whether to shoot them down, or jam them, warn its neighbors, or all of the above. And Minsk has to do so without itself vexing Moscow, whose military and security structures are intertwined with Belaruss.

Since July 2024, at least 700 Russian drones have entered Belarusian airspace, according to an estimate by RFE/RL based on official statements, open-source reports, and tallies from Belarusian Hajun, a monitoring group that was closed down by authorities in February 2025.

How many have been downed or intercepted by the Belarusian military is unknown; only a handful of incidents have been disclosed by government or state media. However, there have been dozens of unconfirmed reports since July 2024 mainly posts from social media as drone wreckage has landed on Belarusian soil.

That includes the incident in the early morning of August 29, 2024, when a Belarusian fighter jet scrambled and shot down a kamikaze drone in the southern Homel region the first known incident of Minsk intentionally intercepting a Russian drone.

In the vast majority of known cases, however, Belarusian officials have said nothing nor done anything.

The drone intrusions add a potentially explosive element to the sometimes tense relationship between Belarus and Russia, which has used its far smaller western neighbor as a staging area for its war on Ukraine and a site for weapons that potentially threaten NATO.

SEE ALSO:

Moscow's Rubicon: Russian Drones In Polish Airspace Test NATO

These drones regularly veer off their course, fly into Belarus uncontrolled, and it's Lukashenko's priority, not Russia's, to have drones not falling on Belarusian people's heads and rooftops, said Belarusian political analyst Artsyom Shraybman, referring to longtime strongman ruler Aleksandr Lukashenko.

It's Lukashenko whos fully in his right to be annoyed that this happens so frequently in his airspace, said Shraybman, who is affiliated with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Neither Polish nor Lithuanian defense ministry officials responded to queries from RFE/RL seeking comment.

In comments to reporters, a Lithuanian deputy defense minister confirmed that Belarusian officials had notified their Lithuanian counterparts about the incoming drones on September 10.

Contact with Belarus was maintained, but we fully understand that Belarus is neither our partner nor in any way an allied state, Karolis Aleksasaid September 17.There is a hotline, and when needed, that channel is used.

SEE ALSO:

Pompeo: Belarus Doesn't Need To Pick Between U.S. And Russia

Lukashenkos Pendulum

In power and virtually unrivaled for more than three decades, Lukashenko has walked a tightrope between opening up his country to the West and ceding to pressure from Moscow to integrate more closely.

After a brief thaw during US President Donald Trumps first term Mike Pompeos visit to Minsk in February 2020 was the first by a secretary of state in 26 years Lukashenko swung back to Russia after an election that August that was widely deemed to be fraudulent.

Months of unprecedented opposition street protests led to a massive security crackdown that swept up thousands, returning Lukashenko to pariah status.

Russias all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 rattled Lukashenkos government, but he resisted Russian pressure to send Belarusian troops into Ukraine, trying to preserve neutrality. Belarusian hospitals have been used extensively to treat wounded Russian soldiers.

SEE ALSO:

Exclusive: Russian Defector Leaks Files Revealing Shocking Scale of War Casualties

But Russian drones flying through Belarusian airspace pose a particular risk for Minsk.

There is more or less one clear rule: as long as Belarus does not use its own troops in this war and does not provide territory for an obvious attack on Ukraine or NATO countries, it is considered a neutral country, Oleksiy Izhak, an analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv. And no one will touch Belarus.

Lukashenko probably is trying to keep this quiet - Russian drones crashing inside Belarus because he doesnt want the Belarusian population to be frightened or angry at Russia, said Eitvydas Bajarunas, a former Lithuanian ambassador to Russia and Britain.

Authorities have also tried to quash social media posts about any drones in Belarusian airspace.

In October 2024, a special police unit, along with KGB officers, detained a woman in the southern town of Kalinkavichy after she posted in a municipal chat room a video of a drone crashing, recorded by her house surveillance camera. The woman was charged with spreading panic and disinformation.

Whos Jamming The Drones?

Theres another reason that Russian drones are crashing in Belarus: electronic warfare or jamming.

In an unusual statement released in English just hours after the Polish incident which involved around 20 drones entering Polish air space Major General Paval Muraveyka, the chief of the Belarus militarys general staff, said some of the Russian drones had gone astray while in Belarusian airspace due to electronic jamming. They were shot down by Belarusian defenses, he said.

Muraveyka did not say whose drones they were; Ukraine also has extensive drone capabilities and launches near nightly aerial attacks on Russian targets.

Experts say its unlikely, however, that Ukraine is using Belarusian airspace to target Russian locations.

But the electronic jamming was in all likelihood Ukraines, Bajarunas said.

Russias military has routinely used a slice of Belarusian territory in the southeast when targeting Ukraine, according to open-source trackers who chart flight paths of Russia drones and missiles.

July 12, 2024, is the first known incident involving a Russian drone flying over Belarus.

Lukashenko made his first public referenceto a drone crashing in September 2024, about two months after one went down near the southern city of Babruysk. A Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jet and a Mi-24 attack helicopter were scrambled to intercept the device.

However, he claimed it was a Ukrainian drone that had crashed -- likely due to electronic jamming. Open-source monitoring channels disputed that.

Tracking data also show Russian drones sometimes loitering, or skirting along the Belarusian-Ukrainian borders, before entering Ukrainian airspace. That suggests a degree of communication between the Russian and Belarusian militaries, said David Gendelman, an Israel-based defense expert.

They dont say this out loud, but perhaps there is coordination at the military level, and thats why these drones are not being shot down, Gendelman said in an interview.

Belaruss air defenses are geared to down bigger targets aircraft, missiles rather than smaller objects like drones, Izhak said.

Belarusian air defense is very limited. It is not easy to shoot down drones, he said.

A Belarusian soldier stands with anti-drone device at a border crossing post, on the border with Ukraine.

Thats an issue that Poland, Lithuania, and the entire NATO alliance is now grappling with. On September 10, some 415 drones were launched by Russia, according to Ukraines military. As more than a dozen crossed into Polish airspace and Minsk warned Warsaw - NATO aircraft scrambled to intercept them.

The intercept included Dutch F-35 jets, Polish F-16 jets, and an Italian AWACS surveillance aircraft, according to NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, along with a German Patriot air defense battery and expensive outlay of weaponry to bring down an inexpensive piece of hardware.

Russia using Belarusian air space more frequently to test or poke NATO members Poland or Lithuania puts even more pressure on Lukashenkos administration; for example, if NATO decides to start shooting down approaching Russian drones before they enter the airspace of the alliance.

This is being used as another important tool of influence on the Belarusian leadership, Izhak said. If theyre not obedient, [the Russians] could start pulling Belarus into these sorts of European showdowns.